You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Northumberland Vase Handicap Preview
Created in 2016, the Northumberland Vase acts as a consolation race for the Northumberland Plate. That means, those who didn't get into the {late have a chance of running in this race over the same two-mile, half a furlong trip.
The race is a Class 2 Handicap run on the all-weather at Newcastle, which is open to runners aged three or older, just like the Plate; the only difference is that it carries just half of the prize money of the Plate.
Northumberland Vase Information:
- Northumberland Vase Past Winners
- Northumberland Vase Trainer Statistics
- Northumberland Vase Jockey Statistics
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Newcastle tips on the day of the race. Do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist, or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Newcastle Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Northumberland Vase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 11 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2020, when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2026 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 140%, whilst on average over the last 11 renewals of the Northumberland Vase, the over-round has been 126%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £126 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Northumberland Vase Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Northumberland Vase Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Northumberland Vase races over the last 11 renewals:
- Dannyday (3:29.87) in 2016
- Cosmelli (3:31.84) in 2018
- Believitanducan (3:32.90) in 2026
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 11 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Northumberland Vase next time out, then you would have backed a total of 0 winners. Backing all 10 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -10.00. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Northumberland Vase, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 11 renewals, it was Dannyday, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ted Durcan, who set the fastest winning time in the Northumberland Vase. That runner won the race in a time of 3:29.87 in 2016. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Mrs C O'Leary and jockey Hollie Doyle with Alphonse Le Grande who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 3:41.66 in the 2024 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Northumberland Vase Past Winners
Here are the Northumberland Vase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Northumberland Vase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 3:32.90 | Believitanducan (IRE) 5yo 9-6 (10 of 20) 100/30 | William Buick Alan King (GB) |
| 2025 3:39.65 | Savrola (IRE) 6yo 9-0 (10 of 19) 10/1 | Connor Beasley Dianne Sayer (GB) |
| 2024 3:41.66 | Alphonse Le Grande (IRE) 5yo 9-10 (12 of 14) 3/1F | Hollie Doyle Mrs C O'Leary (IRE) |
| 2023 3:35.24 | La Hacienda (GB) 6yo 9-8 (6 of 14) 11/1 | Harry Davies (3lbs) Matthew J Smith (IRE) |
| 2022 3:40.81 | Zoffee (GB) 6yo 9-9 (6 of 18) 16/1 | Ben Curtis Hugo Palmer (GB) |
| 2021 3:37.10 | Zeeband (IRE) 4yo 9-8 (2 of 19) 4/1 | Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2020 3:40.48 | Mondain (GB) 4yo 9-10 (4 of 7) 4/1 | Joe Fanning Mark Johnston (GB) |
| 2019 3:32.97 | Carnwennan (IRE) 4yo 9-3 (5 of 15) 7/2F | Stevie Donohoe Charlie Fellowes (GB) |
| 2018 3:31.84 | Cosmelli (ITY) 5yo 9-7 (19 of 19) 33/1 | Daniel Muscutt Gay Kelleway (GB) |
| 2017 3:41.44 | London Prize (GB) 6yo 9-9 (11 of 12) 7/4F | Fran Berry Ian Williams (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northumberland Vase have been based:
- GB: 9 winners with an additional 27 placings from 169 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 7 runners
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Northumberland Vase Trainer Statistics
One trainer has not had the best of times in the Northumberland Vase; Jim Goldie has sent a total of 12 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Northumberland Vase trainer statistics over the last 11 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Williams | 11-1-3 | -8.25 | -4.16 |
| Gay Kelleway | 4-1-1 | +30.00 | +17.63 |
| Alan King | 4-1-2 | +0.33 | +0.46 |
| Charlie Fellowes | 3-1-2 | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Hugo Palmer | 2-1-2 | +15.00 | +10.63 |
| Matthew J Smith | 2-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.88 |
| Dianne Sayer | 2-1-1 | +9.00 | +5.25 |
| Roger Varian | 2-1-2 | +3.00 | +3.13 |
| Mrs C O'Leary | 2-1-1 | +2.00 | +0.88 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
Northumberland Vase Jockey Statistics
Here are some of the top Northumberland Vase jockey statistics over the last 11 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Fanning | 7-1-1 | -2.00 | -3.50 |
| Connor Beasley | 5-1-1 | +6.00 | +2.25 |
| Ben Curtis | 4-1-1 | +13.00 | +7.00 |
| Hollie Doyle | 3-1-1 | +1.00 | -0.12 |
| Daniel Muscutt | 2-1-2 | +32.00 | +22.88 |
| Harry Davies | 2-1-2 | +10.00 | +7.76 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 2-1-2 | +3.00 | +3.13 |
| Stevie Donohoe | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| William Buick | 1-1-1 | +3.33 | +2.08 |
| Paul Mulrennan | 8-0-3 | -8.00 | -2.74 |
2027 Northumberland Vase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 17, 1, 3, 15, 4, 8, 1, 7, 6
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 11 / 11 (55%) - Had 2 - 4 wins (Hcps)
- 11 / 11 (56%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (Season)
- 11 / 11 (56%) - Had 3 - 9 placings (Hcps)
- 11 / 11 (63%) - Had 3 - 11 placings (Career)
- 11 / 11 (68%) - Ran in 4 - 21 races (Hcps)
- 11 / 11 (69%) - Not on HY/SFT/GS/FS (Debut)
- 11 / 11 (71%) - Break of 20 - 337 days (Last Win)
- 11 / 11 (71%) - Ran in 6 - 28 races (Career)
- 11 / 11 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 76+ (LTO)
- 11 / 11 (74%) - Fewer than 2 placings (Class)
- 11 / 11 (75%) - Beaten no more -12½l (LTO)
- 11 / 11 (76%) - No older than a 6yo
- 11 / 11 (76%) - Won within last 6 starts
- 11 / 11 (76%) - Had 2 - 6 wins (Career)
- 11 / 11 (77%) - Achieved a TS of 59+ (Last 3)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newcastle racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Northumberland Vase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Northumberland Vase by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
2027 Northumberland Vase Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2027 renewal of the Northumberland Vase will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually 48 hours before the race.
Northumberland Vase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 6+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +28.50, is when runners had 1 start in the past 90 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past year, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-41.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 10 (3,2,5) [20 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 10 (5,12,16) [19 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 12 (13,4) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 (4,1) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 6 (14,15,10) [18 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Northumberland Vase is Chelmsford (AW); there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Chelmsford (AW) last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 164 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northumberland Vase; that stallion, Sea The Stars, has produced 2 winners (2024,2021).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northumberland Vase despite multiple attempts:
- Nathaniel (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Champs Elysees (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Mastercraftsman (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Galileo (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- High Chaparral (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 11 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Cosmelli in 2018, winning for Gay Kelleway at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Daniel Muscutt. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 11 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.
Route to the Northumberland Vase
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Northumberland Vase. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Believitanducan Chester - 1st of 9 (5/6) | Louise Keegan Handicap |
| 2025 - Savrola Hamilton - 2nd of 11 (6/1) | Sky Bet, For The Fans Handicap |
| 2024 - Alphonse Le Grande Chester - 1st of 16 (19/2) | Duke Of Westminster Supporting The Chester Plate Handicap |
| 2023 - La Hacienda Down Royal - 3rd of 6 (23/1) | His Majestys Plate |
| 2022 - Zoffee Carlisle - 1st of 5 (11/8) | Wiggonby Handicap |
| 2021 - Zeeband Newmarket (Rowley) - 3rd of 7 (3/1) | WSG Promotions Handicap |
| 2020 - Mondain Chelmsford (AW) - 9th of 9 (13/2) | Chatham Green Handicap |
| 2019 - Carnwennan Chelmsford (AW) - 1st of 7 (11/8) | Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com Handicap |
| 2018 - Cosmelli Kempton (AW) - 8th of 13 (33/1) | 32Red Handicap |
| 2017 - London Prize Goodwood - 1st of 9 (7/4) | Maywal Handicap |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Northumberland Vase Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal races at Newcastle Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Newcastle racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in February
Races in April (AWC Finals Day)
- All-Weather 3yo Championships
- All-Weather Easter Classic
- All-Weather Easter Plate
- All-Weather Fillies & Mares Championships
- All-Weather Mile Championships
- All-Weather Sprint Championships
- Burradon Stakes
